May 11, 2004
Tuesday Election Campaign Update
We imagine that the election news might begin coming at an increased rate now that we are one week away, so these round-up items may very well be daily occurances until then.
First, we want to remind readers that there is a candidates forum tonight at Concordia University, featuring the Commissioners No. 1 and No. 4 races. Unfortunately, we have a prior engagement so we won't make this. If any readers plan to atend, perhaps they can stop by and post comments here on this item.
Over at News4Neighbors, Frank Dixon makes his final pitch to readers there.
And in today's Oregonian, there's a look at Portland's ethnic communities that has a number of bits about the local elections.
Also in today's Oregonian, columnist Steve Duin tells of a push poll someone is conducting which appears to be intended to plant negative information about Tom Potter in the minds of Portland voters. For those who don't know what a push poll is, Duin explans:
"Push polls" are much more Machiavellian. They're less interested in gauging opinions than shaping them. They want to disseminate information, if only to discover your hot-button issues. Sometimes the polling firms want to plant ugly seeds in the cynical soil of your political perspective. Other times, they are probing which issues are the perfect starting line for a volley of attack ads.
The push poll reportedly is being conducted by McGuire Research out of Denver, but there's no clear indication as to who commissioned them to run it. Duin does quote a Francesconi staffer:
Lisa Grove, pollster and strategist for Francesconi, the tenuous front-runner in the mayor's race, said she never "push-polls" and won't talk about her clients. But she did add, "There is no way Nathan Thomas is going to be used as an issue in this campaign. I know the things that are going to be communicated to voters, and that's not one of them."
We've only done a cursory -- really, a very cursory -- glance, but we haven't turned up references to McGuire Research in candidates' campaign finance reports as of yet.
Speaking of polls, in the comments to a previous item, a reader posts that they received a call from someone conducting a poll on the Mayoral race:
They asked me if I had voted, then, when I said no, they asked if I was voting for Francesconi, Potter, or someone else. When I said "someone else," they thanked me and hung up. There was no query for demographic information, and no indication that their survey was any broader than the mayor's race.
Finally, the Multnomah County Elections Division's daily turnout report indicates that as of yesterday, turnout here was only 13% so far, and the estimate for today would bring that up slightly to 15%.
Comments (14)
Lynn Siprelle on 11 May 2004
I just got the same "Francesconi, Potter or someone else" call not half an hour ago. When I said I hadn't made up my mind between Potter and Busse, they said thanks and got off the line. Eenteresting.
Jack Bog on 11 May 2004
Is there any doubt that Francesconi's behind this?
Unless it's Spagg calling from purgatory...
The One True b!X on 11 May 2004
Well, I would guess that's the running assumption, but the trick would be how directly. It could be a PAC or some other supporter.
The One True b!X on 11 May 2004
It should also be noted that the Thomas incident mentioned by the push poll Duin writers about was recently mentioned by Potter himself in The Oregonian.
M on 11 May 2004
I just realized one of my telephones has a Caller ID display. This is what it reads:
Precision of IA
515-597-4445
I looked up Precision of Iowa online, and found this website:
http://www.precisiontelemarketing.com/
Their website identifies them as a telemarketing group, and doesn't mention any polling (that I found). I called up the number on the Caller ID and got a voice mailbox, but then I called the number on the website, 610-358-0964, and got a human being. He confirmed that they do do polling and surveys, and that they do sometimes identify themselves as PCI, which is how the caller had identified their company. I asked whether he could tell me on whose behalf they were calling, and he said that he couldn't because a call center out of Iowa does all the calls. I then asked if he could confirm whether Jim Francesconi of Portland was a client, and he said he didn't know. I suppose you could call the Iowa number from my Caller ID tomorrow during central time business hours and ask.
And if anyone else gets this call, say you haven't voted and that you're torn between Francesconi and Potter. Try to get through their entire telephone script.
M on 11 May 2004
...of course, only if you really are torn between Francesconi and Potter ;)
The One True b!X on 11 May 2004
And also everyone remember we're discussing two different polls at once in this thread -- one that's push polling negative attacks on Potter, and one that's not. Well, actually, we don't know what the "PCI" poll is doing yet.
M on 11 May 2004
I called up the number on PCI's website and asked if they have any relationship with McGuire Research of Denver, and the man answered, "not that I know of."
Marko on 12 May 2004
Sounds the PCI poll is designed to identify potential Francesconi supporters--which then could lead to either 1) a push poll to allege dirty things about Potter and/or 2) an indentified Francesconi supporter who will be encouraged to vote and who may even get multiple calls and a visit from someone who will collect their ballot for them.
I say Francesconi and not the other races because the identified poll obviously seems designed to help him, and he's the only person with enough money to do all this stuff.
Jon on 12 May 2004
But a look at Frannie's C & E's doesn't show expenditures on anything like McGuire Research, or PCI or anything like that. Unless any of the other "research" companies or "strategy" companies are using those firms to do some work.
But of course the other option which b!X brought up, is that a PAC is behind it all. Then we may never know who is push polling, and of course Frannie will never admit it.
Marko on 12 May 2004
Obviously, the whole telemarketing effort is designed to help Francesconi. He's either behind it directly, or it's an independent PAC.
But it's not as though there is a huge grassroots groundswell for Francesconi. This is clearly an insider game being worked by political professionals--perhaps the GOP operatives running the Francesconi campaign.
brett on 12 May 2004
I got a call from McGuire last night that covered the entire election - council positions, state rep, mayor. One interesting thing was they had me do a word-association thing; does phrase X describe candidate Y very well, not well, not at all, etc. One of the phrases for Francesconi was "has raised too much money for his campaign". Someone's been reading your site, b!x.
Steve Reinemer on 12 May 2004
fyi, my poll experience: I think he identified himself as with PCI, asked first if I had voted - no, then asked who I planned to vote for - Potter, then asked if that was firm - yes. Nothing else.
Dave Lister on 12 May 2004
GOP operatives running the Francesconi campaign? Gee, I thought all of us Republicans were supporting Extremo the Clown!