May 13, 2004
(Updated) Thursday Election Campaign Update
Note: This post has been updated. Any and all updates appear at the end of the original post.
First, the results from the KGW poll released today. Apparently in this poll of about 408 household voters by telephone and another 776 "likely voters," Jim Francesconi has a narrow lead with 32% to Tom Potter and his 27%. In addition, 29% of respondents say they remain undecided.
According to KGW, the "household poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.85 percent, and the likely voter poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.51 percent," but "household survey was taken between April 20 and April 26, and the likely voter poll was conducted between May 5 and May 10."
We are puzzled by the separation of time, and wonder how it affects the results. This seems more like munging two entirely different polls together from two entirely different periods of the election. But meanwhile, this result is interesting:
Among the 18-34-year-old age group, Potter led Francesconi 29 percent to 10 percent. But among respondents age 35-44-years-old, about 40 percent favored Francesconi to Potter�s 10 percent.
If we compare the general results of htis poll to the previous KOIN/Portland Tribune poll, it suggests that Francesconi has moved up only slightly -- perhaps not at all, given the margins of error -- while Potter has had a surge.
In other campaign news, today's Oregonian examined the non-issue of being gay in various local races.
Meanwhile, Scott Jensen reminds people to vote and offers some of his picks, and Gay American suggests a recall of the Oregonian editorial board for coming out against County Commissioners and backing against Lisa Naito a right-wing disaster waiting to happen.
Finally, we've noticed that another new Sam Adams ad appears to be airing now, and this one does indeed now mention opponent Nick Fish by name.
Disclosure: PORTLAND COMMUNIQUE accepts political advertisements, and currently runs ads from the Busse, Francesconi, and Potter campaigns.
Update
KGW just aired some other results from this poll. In the Commissioner No. 1 race, it has Nick Fish with 28%, Sam Adams at 18%, and undecided at 43%.
In the Commissioner No. 4 race, it had Randy Leonard at 24%, each of his opponents at 3% or less, and undecided at a number we didn't watch. Something about this one seems wrong, and perhaps they mis-read Leonard's number on the air (because that is what the voiceover said), because that shows a massive difference from the previous KOIN/Tribune poll, in which Leonard had just about clinched re-election.
Meanwhile, the poll also showed County Chair Diane Linn with 46% support, but a recall against her with 43% support.
None of these other results appear to have been posted online at all yet.
Update
KGW has now posted both the summary (pdf) and the results (pdf) of this poll. Indeed, the results do show a massive 62% undecided vote in the Commissioner No. 4 race.
Update
Someone has created a very odd Flash animation inspired by some of the items on the "Top 100" list from the Phil Busse campaign.
Comments (2)
Scott Jensen on 13 May 2004
I'm honored I've been included on your blog. Makes me feel pretty cool actually.
Thanks b!X
Arya on 14 May 2004
There was a Go Potter Go ad in yesterday's Metro, and today's Tribune, and I also heard a radio ad from that group on KPOJ 620 today.
Busse's radio ad is kind of boring....
The Go Potter Go website has the infamous video of Jim Francesconi saying he'll never live in dignity village because he's got money and access...sort of entertaining until it becomes infuriating