May 06, 2004
(Updated) New Poll Shows Large 'Undecided' Vote In Portland
Posey Polling Close To Potter, Adams And Fish Up In The Air, Leonard May Have Seat Clinched
Note: This post has been updated. Any and all updates appear at the end of the original post.
Over at pdx_reporter, they've got the early word on KOIN/Portland Tribune poll to be released tomorrow and things are looking fairly interesting:
Portland Mayor
Jim Francesconi 27%
Tom Potter 16%
James Posey 12%
Phil Busse 6%
Undecided 34%
Portland City Commissioner No. 1
Nick Fish 32%
Sam Adams 26%
Undecided 37%
Portland City Commissioner No. 4
Randy Leonard 46%
No one else close
We've been hearing for weeks now that "undecided" was still ahead in the Mayoral race, but the big news here is that James Posey is polling a mere 4 points below Tom Potter in a poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. But the existence of that large "undecided" vote in a poll of 400 "likely voters" conducted between April 25 and April 29 -- immediately prior to the ballots arriving in voters' mailboxes -- is a very telling thing.
We are interested to see what the undecided numbers are for the Commissioner No. 4 race, although that 46% figure for Leonard suggests he's well on his way to clinching his seat in the May 18 primary. As for the Commissioner No. 1 race, we would consider that still up for grabs, since despite Fish's lead in this poll, the "undecided" vote there is about the same as it is in the Mayoral race.
Meanwhile, this is a prime example of why we suggest holding your ballots until election day. Give this stuff time to play out and see where things are at, and where they're going.
Disclosure: PORTLAND COMMUNIQUE accepts political advertisements, and currently runs ads from the Busse, Francesconi, and Potter campaigns.
Update
And of course now the Tribune story on the poll is out. It does have some more detail, for instance this:
In another council race, the poll showed 46 percent of the voters plan to vote for Commissioner Randy Leonard, who faces 10 opponents. Another 28 percent of those surveyed said they would consider voting for a candidate other than Leonard, while 19 percent definitely want to replace Leonard. The poll showed 7 percent unsure.
They also have a link to the poll results (pdf) that as of this update doesn't lead anywhere.
Comments (11)
Jack Bog on 06 May 2004
Go, Posey! Go, Posey! Go, Posey!
The One True b!X on 06 May 2004
I thought you'd like that.
Pete on 07 May 2004
The numbers will be very different on May 18th.
My understanding is that they only polled Portlanders who voted in BOTH 2000 and 2002. That leaves a lot of voters out. Everyone under 22, everyone who has moved to PDX since 2000, everyone who votes sporadically. Plus, 34% are undecided.
M on 07 May 2004
Polling people with a recent history of voting usually makes for the most accurate polls, actually. When you see a poll of "likely voters," that's what it generally means, and those polls tend to be more accurate than polls of "registered voters" or "adults" when it comes to predicting elections. It's rare that a candidate or issue attracts any large numbers of new voters.
A problem with this poll, however, is that it was taken just before ballots came in the mail, when most voters weren't studying the candidates, so a lot of this is just name recognition. The flurry of ads and news coverage that is starting up now will influence votes, and a large number of people don't vote until the last few days.
Brian Smith on 07 May 2004
Now imagine if we used instant runoff voting.
Free Marmaduke on 07 May 2004
The Trib only polled 400 people. As such, it's barely valid statistically. Doesn't mean it's wrong, but one shouldn't put too much faith in it either.
The One True b!X on 07 May 2004
Polling 400 likely voters in a town where only 134,903 votes were cast in the previous primary (in 2002), seems like it'd be more valid of a sample than national polls which poll 500-1000 people for elections in which millions of people vote.
Pete on 07 May 2004
The poll was taken before the debate on KGW and before the voter pamphlets arrived. That is weak. Additionally, since Busse is being credited all over the press for drawing in younger voters and the broader surge in young people giving a damn about politics, I think the age and sporadic voter issues are valid. I'm not saying that M's assessment of polling techniques is inaccurate, just that this poll will be shown to inaccurately reflect actual voter turnout.
M on 07 May 2004
I would have agreed with you a few months ago, Pete, but after seeing exit poll data out of Iowa and New Hampshire that showed young people were not significantly any more likely to vote for Dean than the rest of the population was, I'm not so sure about that argument. And Dean got way more attention among young people nationally than Busse has among young people in Oregon. Of course, I could be wrong.
John on 07 May 2004
> Busse is being
> credited all over the
> press for drawing in
> younger voters and the
> broader surge in young
> people giving a damn
> about politics
I've never heard "the press" assert any such thing, though the Busse campaign asserts it all the time.
Arya on 07 May 2004
John:
In their endorsement editorials, The Oregonian, and Willamette Week both condescendinly refferred to Busse's "pizzaz" and efforts in courting the so called youth vote.
"Phil Busse, with the Portland Mercury, has galvanized younger voters with his tongue-in-cheek approach to the race, his pizazz and his platform of innovative ideas."(The Oregonian)
" Portland Mercury managing editor Phil Busse, meanwhile, launched an energetic campaign that did more than all his opponents' combined to reach out to young voters."(WW)