March 17, 2003
'Oregonian' Disproves Own Estimate
Today's Oregonian attempts to downgrade the crowd estimates for Saturday's massive anti-war rally and march in downtown Portland. Organizers put the figure at around 45,000, while television news reports ranged from 20,000 to 30,000.
According to Oregonian reporter Joseph Rose, using aerial photographs taken by Bergman Photographic Service, the number was closer to 14,200 people.
But there's a problem. The photograph itself -- provided on the front page of the Metro/Portland section -- when combined with some information in the article itself, disproves this lowball number.
Here's how it works.
Toward the end of Rose's piece is the following:
In Portland, Pioneer Courthouse Square is one place where it seems everyone can agree on crowd sizes. When it's full, the square holds about 15,000 people, said event coordinator Stephanie Leeper.
And this is where they key to debunking the article is found.
Pioneer Courthouse Square occupies an entire city block. It's easy, therefore, to compare the crowd visible in the aerial photograph to any nearby city block. For my purposes here, I simply cut out a slip of paper that just covers a stretch of marchers filling a single block of Front Avenue.
If you move that patch of people into a city block, it fills approximate half of that block, which is equivalent to half of Pioneer Courthouse Square. Therefore (roughly speaking), one Front Avenue block of marchers should be approximately 7,500 people.
Which means we can move this slip of paper around the march and come up with a rough estimate of attendance at the time the photograph was taken. You'll see right away where The Oregonian number falls apart. Once you've counted two groups of people equal to the slip of paper, you've already met or exceeded the 14,200 figure. And there are still a quite a number of people you haven't even gotten to yet.
Running through this method, accounting for regular streets not being as wide as Front Avenue, of course, you arrive at a figure closer to approximately 37,000 people.
While it was a brave attempt on the part of The Oregonian to undercut the showing of opposition in the streets of Portland this weekend, I would like to personally thank them for including the very information which undoes their own estimates.
So, let the record show: While it's possible (since it's a rough calculation) that 37,000 overshoots the mark somewhat, it's not only possible but is in fact a given that the estimate published in The Oregonian dramatically falls short of the mark.
Okay. Granted, this is premised entirely on the Pioneer Courthouse Square figure being accurate, or at least reasonably so. But if it is, then The Oregonian figures just don't quite measure up. For what it's worth, the website of Pioneer Courthouse Square itself mentions figures of 18,000 and 20,000 for two events which would clearly have been capacity-crowd events.
Comments (6)
Emma on 17 Mar 2003
Wow, I'm glad you blogged this today. Last night I went on a tirade about how the Oregonian's crooked. Then they provided the proof today, and I was crestfallen. Good man! I'll update the entry and link to your fine analysis.
(Also, I thought I read/heard somewhere that at one time the marchers were spread out over 40 blocks (which seemed odd), and at that distance, you only need 500 people per block. Of course, I couldn't find the link, leading me to imagine that, as usual, this is further proof that me noggin's soft.)
The One True b!X on 17 Mar 2003
For what it's worth, I also have an inquiry in to Pioneer Courthouse Square regarding photographs of past events for which they have numbers, so we can compare and contrast.
Emma on 17 Mar 2003
Finally got the update up. I'll watch and see what you come up with on the aerial photos. I think this goes directly to the Oregonian's bias--they spend a lot of time defending half-assed opinions.
The One True b!X on 17 Mar 2003
FYI, someone emailed Joseph Rose about his article in The Oregonian and the seeming discrepencies in the numbers, and received a reply, in which Rose claims to have "counted every single head" in the aerial photograph.
So, perhaps someone needs to request that The Oregonian release the original source photographs to other interested parties.
The One True b!X on 17 Mar 2003
FYI, just for shits and giggles, if Rose indeed counted every single head, and if it were indeed 14,200 of them, and if we allocate one second per head, it would have been a four hour effort (in total) to perform that count.
Joseph Rose on 18 Mar 2003
Actually, it was closer to a six hour process, even with the aid of an editor and a graphic artist. We counted people in a high-resolution, enlarged version of the photo in Monday's newspaper. Where the view of the crowd was obstructed, by a bridge, say, we gave the benefit to the organizers and allocated the maximum amount of people that could fit in a grid. We also counted people that likely were not part of the protest, canoeists and pedestrians several blocks from the march, just to make sure. The count is solid. This was simply an exercise for the sake of accuracy and history, undertaken with an eye on objectivity rather than the politics of the possible war. If the number had turned out to be 50,000 using the same science and method, I'm confident I would have heard the same complaints and accusations from Bush and war supporters, and nothing but praise from the anti-war marchers.
I hope this clears up any concerns about the story's methodology and intent.
All the best,
Joseph Rose
The Oregonian